Minnesota (6-6) at San Francisco (3-9)
December 6, 2007
Minnesota Vikings Defense
1st Ranked against the Run
32nd Ranked against the Pass
Minnesota Vikings Offense
1st Ranked in Rushing
31st Ranked in Passing
San Francisco 49ers Defense
27th Ranked against the Run
20th Ranked against the Pass
San Francisco 49ers Offense
27th Ranked in Rushing
32nd Ranked in Passing
A match made in…well, maybe not heaven, but someplace where good humor abounds. The absolute worst passing offense on the planet comes up against the crummiest pass defense in the world this week when the Vikings come ashore on the left coast to try for their fourth straight win. A victory would put them in a three way dogfight for a wild card with Detroit and Arizona, but only if those two teams win their games as well; should the Lions fall in Dallas and the Cardinals get taken down by the Seahawks, Minnesota would be the uncontested number six seed in the NFC and would have destiny in their own hands as they make a run for the playoffs.
An unconfirmed rumor has it that the San Francisco linebacking corps were seen at a meditation session earlier this week, all sitting in the lotus position and chanting in unison a mantra of “stop Adrian Peterson, stop Adrian Peterson…”. Of course that still leaves them the problem of Minnesota’s second running back Chester Taylor, who came in for a gimpy Peterson against the Raiders two weeks ago and prompty ripped off 164 yards on the ground and caught 3 passes for 38 more.
Don’t look for the Vikings to do anything other than what has gotten them to this point; total domination of the ground game on both sides of the football. Minnesota, who owns the best run defense in the NFL has given up only about 70 yards per game to opposing rushers, and the 49ers best running back Frank Gore doesn’t average that many yards even against teams who aren’t as stingy with rushing yardage as the Vikings.
And don’t look for San Francisco to do anything other than what has gotten them to this point either; lose football games.
Pittsburgh (7-2) at New York Jets (1-8)
November 17, 2007
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense
1st Ranked against the Run
1st Ranked against the Pass
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense
2nd Ranked in Rushing
18th Ranked in Passing
New York Jets Defense
32nd Ranked against the Run
24th Ranked against the Pass
New York Jets Offense
22nd Ranked in Rushing
22nd Ranked in Passing
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense is the best in the NFL hands down. They have allowed fewer rushing yards, fewer passing yards and fewer points per game than any other team in the league. That kind of performance will be difficult for the Jets to overcome, but at least NY quarterback Kellen Clemens has shown some positive energy since coming in to replace the beleaguered Chad Pennington. Clemens, the Jets second-round draft pick in 2006, completed 23 of 42 for 226 yards and a touchdown, and rushed 7 times for 48 yards in an overtime loss to the Redskins two weeks ago.
NY Giants ( 6-3) at Detroit (6-3)
November 17, 2007
New York Giants Defense
9th Ranked against the Run
9th Ranked against the Pass
New York Giants Offense
6th Ranked in Rushing
20th Ranked in Passing
Detroit Lions Defense
8th Ranked against the Run
30th Ranked against the Pass
Detroit Lions Offense
29th Ranked in Rushing
9th Ranked in Passing
The Giants are a classic NFL formula; a strong running team with a couple of good receivers who can help out on third and long, and a solid defense which has traditionally been the hallmark of championship teams. The Lions are the quasi newer age football team, focused on passing and outscoring their opponents as the primary strategy and rushing to fill in the gaps, but they have also developed a solid rushing defense this year. Thus you would expect New Yorks running game to be balanced by the Lions defensive line, and the Lions powerful passing offense to be controlled by the Giants 9th ranked pass defense.
Cleveland (5-4) at Baltimore (4-5)
November 17, 2007
Cleveland Browns Defense
28th Ranked against the Run
31st Ranked against the Pass
Cleveland Browns Offense
18th Ranked in Rushing
10th Ranked in Passing
Baltimore Ravens Defense
2nd Ranked against the Run
12th Ranked against the Pass
Baltimore Ravens Offense
19th Ranked in Rushing
21st Ranked in Passing
You may look at the defensive stats and assume that Cleveland is just going to lay down and live up to their ranking by giving up 29 points as their previous opponents have averaged over nine games. But things are not always as they seem when viewed on paper, and the Browns rivalry against the Ravens is a very different animal. The Ravens after all used to be the Browns before they abandoned the Ohio valley for the Baltimore beltway. And on the other side of the ledger, two of the brightest stars on the Browns roster (quarterback Derek Anderson and running back Jamal Lewis) are outcasts from the Ravens squad.
Indianapolis (7-1) at San Diego (4-4)
November 10, 2007
Indianapolis Colts Defense
15th Ranked against the Run
3rd Ranked against the Pass
Indianapolis Colts Offense
7th Ranked in Rushing
8th Ranked in Passing
San Diego Chargers Defense
22nd Ranked against the Run
24th Ranked against the Pass
San Diego Chargers Offense
14th Ranked in Rushing
22nd Ranked in Passing
San Diego has a hard tackling linebacker in Stephen Cooper, and the Chargers have had great success stopping the run this year. At least they did before running into (or rather being run into) by Vikings rookie running back Adrian Peterson. Before the Vikings game last week, San Diego had the 7th ranked defense against the run and now they’re ranked number 22. But one game doth not a run defense make, or in this case unmake. The Patriots had a similarly ranked run defense when they played the Colts last week and they were quite successful at stopping Indy running back Joseph Addai on several critical second half drives. Nevertheless Addai did have good rushing yardage on the day and good receiving yardage too, most of that coming on a swing pass from Manning that was designed to gain just enough yardage for a first down.
Jacksonville (5-3) at Tennessee (6-2)
November 10, 2007
Jacksonville Jaguars Defense
16th Ranked against the Run
26th Ranked against the Pass
Jacksonville Jaguars Offense
5th Ranked in Rushing
25th Ranked in Passing
Tennessee Titans Defense
1st Ranked against the Run
12th Ranked against the Pass
Tennessee Titans Offense
3rd Ranked in Rushing
31st Ranked in Passing
If any team in the NFL exemplifies the old maxim that good defense and a solid running attack wins games, it’s this years Titans. Of course, they really don’t have much other choice in the matter. Tennessee is marginally better at throwing the football than the San Francisco 49ers but that’s not saying much. You can look at the top 40 receivers in the game and check against receptions, yardage and touchdowns; you will not find a single receiver from the Titans on the list. Tennessee has 15 touchdowns this year which in itself is puzzling for a team that is 6-2 but what’s more difficult to believe is that only 3 of them have gone to Titans receivers.
Read more
Philadelphia (3-5) at Washington (5-3)
November 9, 2007
Philadelphia Eagles Defense
7th Ranked against the Run
21st Ranked against the Pass
Philadelphia Eagles Offense
14th Ranked in Rushing
11th Ranked in Passing
Washington Redskins Defense
9th Ranked against the Run
18th Ranked against the Pass
Washington Redskins Offense
9th Ranked in Rushing
26th Ranked in Passing
The importance of this game has little to do with the Eagles. The die hard Philly fans (are there any?) might be dreaming of the comeback kids’ performance last season when backup QB Jeff Garcia took the Eagles to a 5-0 run down the stretch, captured the division title and earned a playoff spot, but those of us here on planet earth would probably take a more realistic view of things. No, the story here is Washington, and whether they can muster enough success to stay alive in a conference that has two divisions in which the leader is 7-1 and the second place club is 6-2 (NFC East Cowboys/Giants, and NFC North Green Bay/Detroit). The fact that the Redskins have a better record than any team in either the NFC South or the NFC West won’t matter a lick if they can’t challenge the Giants or Lions for a Wild Card berth. Right now the Giants are a better target because Detroit will probably smack the Cardinals around pretty good this weekend.
Jags Newbie QB Faces a Hot Brees
November 2, 2007
Jacksonville (5-2) at New Orleans (3-4)
At first glance, you would think that Jacksonville is the only real story in this matchup. They are in the unenviable position of sharing a division with a Colts club that is blasting through the season with a 7-0 record, and sharing a conference with the astounding Patriots who have run to 8-0 and rewritten a substantial portion of the record books. All things considered the Jaguars have held it together pretty well. They are only one of 3 teams in the AFC with a 5-2 record which ties them for third place in the conference; only their AFC South division rivals the Titans, and the AFC North Steelers have equaled that mark. Read more
Titans Slightly Less Battered than Carolina
November 1, 2007
Carolina (4-3) at Tennessee (5-2)
This will be an important game for both the Panthers and the Titans. At 4-3 Carolina knows that their chances of having a record good enough to earn them a wild card for the playoffs is mighty slim if they haven’t even taken first place in their division. That means they will need to win the NFC South to have any meaningful shot at post season play. It’s not an unrealistic goal; they aren’t in as poor a division as, say the NFC West where the lackluster Seattle Sleepwalks wallow in mediocrity, but Carolina’s division rivals Tampa Bay and New Orleans are still both hovering around .500 as are the Panthers so the opportunity to stay in the race is still there. It probably can’t be done with a loss to the Titans however – Drew Brees is putting up some big passing numbers for the Saints and Jeff Garcia is a capable veteran for the Buccaneers who will probably dispatch Arizona this weekend. For their part the Titans can’t afford to drop a single game. It might be an uphill battle to beat the streaking Colts for a divisional title but Tennessee is in good position if they keep up the current pace to guarantee themselves a wild card spot at the very least – in the entire AFC only the Jaguars have as good a record as the Titans among teams that are not division leaders.
Battle of the Goliaths - Pats vs Colts
October 31, 2007
New England (8-0) at Indianapolis (7-0)
Never in the 88 years that the NFL has been in existence have two teams with records this good played against each other.
In the last three meetings between the Patriots and the Colts, Indianapolis has won three times. But the tide has already started to turn in a very big way.
2005; When the Colts beat the Pats 2 years ago on November 7, they blew New England out with a 19 point margin. Manning was 28 of 37 for 321 yards and three touchdowns that day. The Colts didn’t even have to punt the football until the game was practically over and they scored more points against the Patriots defense than they ever had before. “We got our butts kicked tonight,” Pats quarterback Tom Brady said in a very brief interview following the game.
2006; Brady and Manning next met on November 5 when New England was 6-1 and Indianpolis was 7-0. Before the game the Indianapolis defense was ranked 21st in the NFL in points allowed per game, and their poor record against the run had earned them the uncomplimentary nickname “swiss cheese defense”. In a depressing performance, Brady was picked off 4 times and didn’t throw a touchdown all day. Peyton Manning by contrast went 20 of 36 for 326 yards and 2 touchdowns. A decent New England ground game featuring Corey Dillon who ran for 2 touchdowns kept The Pats in the game, and in spite of a -3 turnover margin they still finished only 7 points down as the Colts took it 27-20 and extended their record to 8-0.
2006 (Playoffs); The last time New England and Indianapolis met was in January of 2007, in the AFC Championship Game for the 2006 season. The Patriots rung up 21 points in the first half and led the Colts by 18. But in the second half Manning did a tremendous job of pulling his team back from the deficit. By the 4th quarter the game was see-sawing between a slim Patriots lead and a tie score, but with 2 minutes left on the clock and his team down by 3 points Manning engineered a touchdown drive that put the Colts out in front for the first time all game. With one minute left Brady tried to rally the Pats but he was picked off with only 24 seconds remaining. Manning had only to take a knee for the 38-34 win. At the end of the day he had passed for 349 yards and a touchdown.
It certainly seems as though the Pats have been creeping closer to figuring out the Colts, and there is also a big difference between the Patriots team that lost to the Colts last year and the Pats team today; New England has some huge new offensive weapons in their arsenal, chief among them wide receiver Randy Moss who leads the NFL in almost all receiving categories and wide receiver Wes Welker who is 2nd in the league with 56 receptions this year and ranks as the 8th leading receiver with 613 yards. This is not the same Patriots receiving squad that featured Reche Caldwell dropping 2 very catchable balls in the AFC Championship, one of them for a sure touchdown that would have ended any chance for a Colts comeback.
And New England is flaunting that newfound passing game. Trouncing the Redskins last week 52-7 brought about charges that New England is trying to put as many points on the board as possible, even at stages in a game where it’s clear that a win is out of their opponents reach. Guess what – it’s true. After the Belichick spying scandal I guess these guys feel they have something to prove; namely that they can win without cheating.
The Patriots will get their chance to prove that when they come to Indianapolis this Sunday. They are around 6 point favorites to beat Indy this week, and they have covered the spread in every game this season as they have done in 13 of their last 14 games. In their last 3 games the Pats have scored 48, 49 and 52 points respectively. Will the Colts, their longtime nemesis finally fall beneath their swords? Their baptism by fire in this glorious season will answer that question and will be the true test of their mettle.
